Biofuels Digest, BIO Invite Responses to the Q2 2011 Bioenergy Business Outlook Survey

Biofuels Digest, the world’s most widely read biofuels daily, and BIO are inviting responses to the quarterly Bioenergy Business Outlook Survey, today through Friday June 17.
The 21-question survey examines growth expectations and opportunities from a company, national and organizational point of view and is open to companies and organizations in all sectors of the industry.
The Spring 2011 Survey found that nearly 40 percent of the industry expected strong to moderate growth, anywhere from 5 to 20 percent, with rising demand for alternative fuels, new technology or intellectual property, and partnering in R&D, production and marketing driving growth.
The Summer 2011 Survey will indicate whether those expectations are still as strong.

Aviation Industry an Enormous Growth Challenge for Biofuels

To meet the demand for sustainable aviation biofuels with algae, the industry would have to build a new plant every month for the next 20 to 30 years, Biojet Corp. Chairman Chuck Fishel noted during Tuesday’s General Plenary Session at BIO’s World Congress.

Michael Lakeman of Boeing put forward a more cautious goal of meeting 1 percent of jet fuel demand with biofuels by 2015. That would still require 60 million gallons, though, and from Boeing’s perspective, they must be truly sustainable.

Fishel still worries whether the airline industry is an attractive market for algae and advanced biofuels. Biotech companies can make more money by pursuing low-volume, high-value chemicals than high-volume, low-value jet fuels. So would airlines be able to compete for these sustainable solutions?

Navy Director of Operational Energy Chris Tindal, however, is far more certain about the Defense Department’s needs for sustainable biofuels, particularly from algae. The Navy has set a goal of using 50 percent renewable energy by 2020 and launching the Great Green Fleet by 2016. Currently, the military uses about 2 percent of all energy used in the United States, with most of that represented by transportation fuels. So, it is a niche market, but one that still requires cost competitiveness as well as a sustainable level of greenhouse gas emissions.

Navy Asst. Sec. Chris Tindal Speaking at the 2011 BIO World Congress

Tindal also made clear that what the Navy wants is to be able to pull into ports around the world to refuel with biofuels. Relying on a single large producer of fuel and a long worldwide supply line would recreate one of the problems with the military’s reliance on oil.

Business Outlook Survey: Bioenergy Industry Is Optimistic

The results of the latest Biofuels Digest/BIO Quarterly Business Outlook Survey show that 85 percent of bioenergy industry executives say they are more optimistic than 12 months ago both about their organization’s prospects for growth and industry growth. Biofuels Digest drew comparisons to the previous two Business Outlook Surveys, conducted in September 2010 and December 2010.

Nearly 20 percent of respondents predicted that their organization’s revenue would increase 11 to 24 percent in the coming year, while an additional 17 percent predicted more modest growth in the 5 to 10 percent range. Likewise, more than 40 percent of respondents projected industry revenue growth in the 5 to 10 percent range.

The biggest drivers of growth for organizations, each identified by more than 40 percent of respondents, were rising demand for alternative fuels, new technology or intellectual property, and partnering in R&D, production and marketing.

The survey received responses from more than 700 executives in the bioenergy sector.

Biofuels Digest, BIO Launch Spring 2011 Bioenergy Business Outlook Survey

Biofuels Digest and the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) invite the industry to take part in the Spring 2011 Bioenergy Business Outlook Survey.

The survey examines growth expectations and opportunities from a company, national and organizational point of view. It also examines the role of research, government policy, finance, and research and market partners in creating opportunities or barriers to the growth of green jobs, energy security and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The survey is open to organizations in all sectors of the industry – including producers, research and teaching organizations, associations, equipment suppliers, offtake partners and suppliers of services to the industry.

Respondents to the 21 question survey will receive a detailed summary of the survey’s findings and commentary on trends from the Biofuels Digest editorial team. Summarized results will be published in Biofuels Digest, but the customized, in-depth summary will be available only to respondents.

The Winter 2010 Bioenergy Business Outlook Survey conducted in December drew responses from companies representing an estimated 4,200 green jobs and more than $3 billion in annual sales. That survey showed that 80 percent of bioenergy executives were more optimistic both about their organization’s prospects for growth and industry growth, than 12 months prior. It also showed that confidence about industry growth prospects had jumped 11 percentage points in the final quarter of 2010.

Follow this link to go straight to the 2011 Spring Bioenergy Business Outlook Survey.

Biofuels Digest Surveys Readers on 2011 Industry Trends

Biofuels Digest, the world’s most widely read biofuels daily, is asking readers to rank the trends that will drive the biofuels and biorefining industry in 2011. Will Congress debate new energy legislation? Which federal agency will support construction of the first commercial advanced biofuel biorefinery, USDA, DOE or DOD? How important will biobased products and renewable chemicals be as advanced biofuels producers look for an economically viable model?

BIO member companies weighed in to suggest the trends. Now, we’re encouraging everyone interested in the industry to read Biofuels Digest and rank the trends they think are most important.

BIO and Biofuels Digest will co-publish the top trends in coming weeks and continue watching throughout the coming year.

Odd Coalition Warns Capitol Hill About Synthetic Biology

Friends of the Earth joined forces today with the University of North Dakota’s Energy and Environmental Research Center, a well-known advocate of clean coal technology, to present a new report on Synthetic Biology to Congressional staffers. While the report specifically vilifies the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO), representatives of BIO, including myself, were physically barred from attending the presentation.
The report contains a great deal of factual information about progress in synthetic biology and algae research, along with an accurate depiction of many groups’ and countries’ shared vision for a bioeconomy. But unfortunately, the information is garbled within an anti-corporate, anti-science and anti-biotech agenda, coupled with a failure to distinguish between technologies that are in use today and merely theoretical discussions at university labs.

Video of Plenary Sessions from BIO’s World Congress

BIO’s World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology held 6 plenary sessions, featuring Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and DOE Asst. Secretary Cathy Zoi. Additionally, a World Economic Forum report on the Future of Industrial Biorefineries, detailing the potential economic contribution that industrial biotechnology can make, was presented by Novozymes CEO Steen Riisgaard. And a survey of the industrial biotech and advanced biofuel industry by McKinsey & Co. took the pulse of executives in the industry.

In the June 28 plenary session, DOE Asst. Sec. Zoi announces funding totaling $24 million for three algae biofuel research consortia.

During the June 29 plenary session, Ag. Sec. Vilsack indicated that the Obama administration supports biofuel development as a means of boosting rural employment and economic development.

Novozymes CEO Riisgaard followed Vilsack, saying that “converting biomass into fuels, energy, and chemicals has the potential to generate upwards of $230 billion to the global economy by 2020.”

Earlier that day, McKinsey & Co.’s Raoul Oberman presented the findings of a survey of the industry, including that more than half of respondents said there is currently insufficient capital to support growth of the industry.

Algae-Based Biofuels

Last week the Triplepundit wrote a post called, Breaking the Cost Barrier on Algae-based Biofuels.  The piece noted that the technology was promising and then provided a summary of where things are today

And just where are things?  Today biofuel companies are currently seeking to scale the commercial production of algae and are pursuing several engineering approaches to the design of an economical system for growing algae. The industry is also investigating use of closed systems and open pond systems. In closed systems, engineers can precisely regulate algae growth conditions. Closed systems include both photobioreactors for photosynthetic algae strains and traditional bioreactors (enclosed tanks such as those used in other microbial growth) for those, such as cyanobacteria, that do not require sunlight. Open pond systems have been used in many settings, but can be sensitive to various environmental factors, such as contamination by other algae strains, or variations in nutrients, heat and light. Pond systems covered by thin plastic films and combination closed/open systems are being developed to control these factors.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is working with teams led by Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) and General Atomics to produce cost-effective military jet fuel (JP-8) from algae. Testing is expected to begin in 2011. The Navy’s Defense Energy Support Center has also purchased and begun testing algae-derived diesel distillates from Solazyme. And Continental Airlines and Japan Airlines have successfully tested Jet A from Sapphire Energy and UOP Renewables in commercial jets, including Boeing 737 and 747 planes.

Raining on Cellulosic Ethanol’s Parade

Writer Alyssa Danigelis posted an item of interest on Discovery News last month detailing the latest supposed “blow” to the biofuel industry. The writer highlights a new study in Agronomy Journal in which Kansas State University Assistant Professor Humberto Blanco-Canqui concludes, “Only a small fraction (about 25%) of residue might be available for removal, depending on soil type and climate. This small amount of crop residues is not economically feasible nor logistically possible.”

Matt Merritt of POET and Professor Bruce Dale of Michigan State University have posted responses to Blanco-Canqui’s conclusion. What they drive at is that the fraction of agricultural residue that can be removed from a field depends greatly on the geography and management of that field. Jim Hettenhaus of CEA Inc. has helped lead a study in Imperial, Neb., to determine optimum stover removal and storage practices based on local variables in soil type and weather, and he was kind enough to share preliminary results (See Stover Value Review). And several years ago, BIO published a study, Achieving Sustainable Production of Agricultural Biomass for Biorefinery Feedstock, that indicates the amount of residue removed from a field can be increased through adoption of no-till soil management.

The economic feasibility of harvesting crop residues for cellulosic biofuel production, of course, is highly dependent on the individual farmer. Aside from its value in managing organic carbon in tilled soil, crop residues are also currently used as animal bedding and other things. Individual farmers are thus faced with a decision whether the biofuel market for crop residues is attractive enought to induce them to change their field management practices, buy new harvesting equipment, and forego current uses of residues to instead transport them to a collection or storage facility. The same economic question faces any farmer who considers growing switchgrass or short-rotation woody crops, which are favored by Blanco-Canqui. And for the most part, biofuel production does not yet provide a compelling market for farmers, although POET and others have begun contracting directly with farmers to harvest and deliver small, easily harvested amounts of residues to pilot production plants.

Perhaps the most pernicious assumption behind many academic and press articles is that cellulosic ethanol “proposes turning waste into something useful.” Considering the costs of trash removal for most cities, even trash won’t be considered “waste” if it becomes a valuable feedstock for biofuels. Just as pernicious, perhaps, is the industry’s assumption that an apparently abundant resource is naturally a cheap resource. Inevitably, these assumptions have led everyone to search for the perfect energy source – one that doesn’t compete with food production, doesn’t require petroleum fertilizers, and doesn’t come with the dreaded “unintended consequences.” A far better plan would be to seek sources that best fit a local area, and then look for ways to manage them in economically and environmentally sound ways.

Biofuels Done Right?

Images from the “slow-motion catastrophe” that began last week 50 miles off the coast of Louisiana brought to mind a bit of sarcasm I offered to a colleague almost exactly a year ago. The NRDC was running the below ad on Capitol Hill, saying, “Biofuels. If we’re going to use them, let’s do it right,” with a picture of the deforestation that many assumed would occur from use of biofuels.

My facetious idea was to run a counter ad, with pictures from the Exxon Valdez disaster, asking NRDC if they considered “biofuels not done at all” to be done right. And perhaps that ad could have been rerun on March 31, as the Obama administration announced with purely Orwellian logic that plans for expanding offshore oil drilling were “part of a broader strategy that will move us from an economy that runs on fossil fuels and foreign oil to one that relies on homegrown fuels and clean energy.”

Now, of course, 5,000 barrels of oil each day are spilling into the Gulf of Mexico from the ruptured pipes of a deep sea oil well, creating an oil slick covering 400 square miles. While not yet rivaling the Exxon Valdez disaster, where 258,000 barrels leaked, the threat to wildlife and sensitive wetlands still exists. And consider, an estimated 90 rigs drilling in the Gulf of Mexico provide 1.7 million barrels of oil a day, nearly one-third of total US production.

Today, President Obama is touring a POET biorefinery in Missouri and talking about the need for increased biofuel production:

For decades, we’ve talked about how our dependence on oil from other countries threatens our economy. But usually our will to act kind of rises or falls depending on the price at the pump. We talked about how it threatens future generations, even as we witnessed some funny things going on in terms of our climate change, and recognizing the environmental costs of relying on fossil fuels, but, frankly, we always said we’ll get to it tomorrow. We talked about how it threatened our security, but we’ve grown actually more dependent on foreign oil every single year since Richard Nixon started talking about this danger of dependency on foreign oil.”

But of course, cellulosic and advanced biofuel production has fallen short of goals, primarily due to a lack of capital needed for rapid scale up. Investor confidence in the sector was undermined in 2008 and 2009 by a combination of the economic recession, wild volatility in feedstock costs, and predictions of impending doom by opponents of biofuels.

Investor confidence may be slowly recovering, according to recent indications, but the overall mood still remains skeptical. A few of the more choice pronouncements indicate the general mood.

Want to become a millionaire investing in publicly traded advanced biofuel stocks? One way would be to start as a multi-millionaire.”

“Very few investors in any cleantech sector are going to be investing the amounts of capital we saw at the height in 2008,” when venture capitalists were investing in production facilities, says Dallas Kachan, managing director of the Cleantech Group, a research and consulting firm that tracks venture-capital spending in green technology.